Indians/MLB Season Predictions 2012

I’ve always said that in sports, it’s not about how you start, but how you finish. This was definitely the case with the Indians last year. We got off to that amazing start, winning 30 of the first 45 games, and at one point, lead the AL Central by 7 games. That’s 1990’s stats right there. It was an amazing time at Progressive Field. Seeing the seats slowly begin to fill as the weather warmed up, all the amazing walk off wins...it made you think there was something magical about this team. But then, they fell back to earth, wrapping up the rest of the year by going 50-67, finishing 80-82, and second place in the Central, 15 games behind the Tigers. No doubt the team still showed some excitement during those last 117 games, but it wasn’t meant to be. Injuries and career slumps really weighed down the momentum we had early in the year.

Ubaldo Jimenez

To try and rally the troops, the Indians did something I never thought I’d see again for a long time: they were buyers at the trade deadline. They acquired pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, the biggest pitching name on the trade market at the time, from the Colorado Rockies for two highly touted prospects: Alex White and Drew Pomeranz. I’m not going to go into all of my thoughts on the trade, but I will just give these few points and move on: Is Jimenez the pitcher he was in 2009, or 2010 (the Tribe is banking on 2009)? Even if he is, is he worth the price of Pomeranz, a tall, 98 mph throwing lefty who can hit his target consistently (which is impossible to find), and the hard throwing White, both who have the stuff that could make them be aces on many pitching staffs? I like the fact that the Indians were finally buyers at the deadline, but White and Pomeranz were far too much to give up. Granted, there’s probably a good chance either White or Pomeranz do not work out at the major league level, but to give them both up on a pitcher which had one great year two years ago and has struggled since is a huge risk to take, and one that could be disastrous if it doesn’t work out. If it does work out in all ways, then we’d have a big two rotation (Justin Masterson and Jimenez) instead of a big three (Masterson, Pomeranz, White). I’d take three over two.

With that being said, pitching was hardly the Indians biggest need for this year. The highest batting average on the team last year belonged to Asdrubal Cabrera, who hit .273. Now, that’s not a bad average, and considering Cabrera emerged as a power hitter, he’s allowed to hit less if it equals more extra base hits. However, not having one .300 hitter is a real glaring issue. In order to have a successful offense, I think you need at least one or two guys that you can consistently rely on to at least get on base. Preferably, he has the speed to get to second base on a steal on multiple occasions, and just overall able to make something happen. In the 1990’s, that guy was Kenny Lofton. There’s really no one on this squad that I think about in that way right now. Outfielder Michael Brantley and Second Baseman Jason Kipnis may get to that level one day, but right now they’re still developing. If the Indians are serious about wanting to contend sooner rather than later, than they need to be in the market for a consistent hitter that can get on base and give guys like A-Cab and Carlos Santana someone to drive in. Also, the Tribe didn’t address their most glaring issue from last year: the need for a right handed power bat. They signed Casey Kotchman, who had a nice enough season at First Base for the Rays last year, but his 10 HR’s and .422 SLG in 146 games is pathetic. Considering he is now in the same division as Prince Fielder, who had 38 HR’s and a .566 SLG in 162 games last year, makes it look even worse.

I am however, really excited about our pitching this year. I will say that I do like the acquisition of Derek Lowe for the rotation. He may be at the end of his career, but I think he’ll be a great addition to help mentor the young guys like Masterson and Tomlin, rather than providing a lot of wins. With Lowe, Masterson, and Jimenez (if he’s consistent), we can have a pretty good starting rotation. Plus, the Bullpen Mafia is one of the best in baseball, in my opinion. I will say though, I think Chris Perez is slowly on his way out of the closer role, and if he continues the success he had in 2010, Vinne Pestano could be the new permanent closer by late July. That is, of course, in the case that Perez struggles.

I think 2012 is going to be more of the same for the Indians. We’re going to see some flashes of great ballplay, mostly from guys like A-Cab, Santana, Choo, and Masterson. I think we’ll also see the emergence of the young guys like Brantley, and Jason Kipnis. But, with growth comes growing pains, and there’s going to be a lot of that this year as well.

I will close out my thoughts on the Indians with this: The upper brass in the Indians organization can no longer complain that they are a mid to low level market team, for two huge reasons. Prince Fielder, who, behind Albert Pujols (who will be considered one of the greatest of all time one day) was the second biggest free agent this past offseason. He signed a 9 yr/$214 mil. contract with Detroit, a city that is not only our baseball rival, but one considered on the same market level as Cleveland. Then, just yesterday, the Cincinnati Reds signed their 1B Joey Votto to a 10 yr/$225 mil. deal. These are two cities right in Cleveland’s area in terms of demographics and marketability, and they are willing to spend the money to buy and/or keep big name players. No longer can the Indians complain that free agents only go to places like New York or Los Angeles. The opportunity is there to sign these players; management just has to be willing to spend the money to sign them. Signing A-Cab through 2014 is a good start, but it needs to be just that: a start, not a finish.

As for the rest of MLB: the American League is stacked with good to great teams this year. There isn’t a team in the National League that can compete, and I think whomever wins the AL will win the World Series. 2012 also marks the first year for a two-team wild card format for each league. The two wild card teams will face-off in a one game playoff, with the victor then advancing to play the top seed in their league. I think it’s great that baseball finally expanded the teams that make the playoffs, but I think a one game playoff is kind of crazy. While there should be more teams in the playoffs for baseball, this is hardly fair to the two wild card teams. I still like the idea of dropping the amount of regular season games back down to 154, increasing the amount of teams to 8 in each league, and having the first round be best of 3. It doesn’t put any extra strain on pitchers arms; more teams get their opportunity in the playoffs, and baseball gets the higher revenue from postseason games compared to regular season. But, the expanded wild card is a good start, and hopefully it expands more in the coming years.

Below are my division by division predictions for each league, with playoff scenarios and winners. I’ve thrown in a few award winners, and my prediction for the Indians record. Honestly, I don’t think there’s any way we topple the mighty Tigers, who may just have the best team in baseball. Let me know what you think, and post your own predictions!

* = Wild Card Teams

AL East 1. Yankees 2. Red Sox* 3. Rays 4. Blue Jays 5. Orioles	AL Central 1. Tigers 2. Indians 82-80 3. Royals 4. Twins 5. White Sox	AL West 1. Angels 2. Rangers* 3. Mariners 4. Athletics
NL East 1. Phillies 2. Marlins* 3. Braves 4. Nationals 5. Mets	NL Central 1. Reds 2. Cardinals 3. Brewers 4. Cubs 5. Pirates 6. Astros	NL West 1. Giants 2. Diamondbacks* 3. Dodgers 4. Rockies 5. Padres

Playoffs:
AL:
Wild Card: Rangers over Red Sox
DS: Tigers over Rangers, Angels over Yankees
CS: Angels over Tigers

NL:
Wild Card: Marlins over Diamondbacks
DS: Marlins over Giants, Reds over Phillies
CS: Marlins over Reds

World Series: Angels over Marlins

AL MVP: Prince Fielder
NL MVP: Joey Votto
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Moore
NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Cliff Lee