Can it really be that time of year again already? It seems like it was just yesterday The King's Speech was cleaning up at the 2011 Oscars, and millions of fan-boys cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced, as The Social Network lost.
Okay, I'm not trying to be harsh. The Social Network is a great film, and deserved to win Best Picture. But, that was last year, we've got a new year and new films to mull over. It seems like nothing can stop The Artist this year. Haven't heard of it? Don't worry, many haven't. It's only made $12 million dollars at the box office so far, despite terrific reviews, and several wins at awards ceremonies. If you haven't seen it yet, I highly recommend it. It's a sweet film about the beginning of cinema's talking age. It's led by a terrific cast and a wonderful score. Oh, just one thing: it's silent. Yup, as in no talking; only facial expressions and reactions. But it's a terrific film, and one you ought to see.
Anyway, on to the Oscars. While The Artist is a major favorite, there are still a few films that could pull the upset next month. The Help is the most likely at this point, but in order for it to do that, it needs to gain some major nominations tomorrow. While it will have the acting categories covered, I think it will need a Best Director nomination in order to really have a chance.
There's also Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris, not only one of the best movies of the year, but also Allen's finest work in years. Martin Scorsese's first family film, Hugo, also has a shot, thanks to his Best Director win at the Golden Globes. Not to mention the wonderful Moneyball and Alexander Payne's The Descendants.
But, at this point, this is The Artist's Oscar to lose. The main question then becomes, what will be nominated along with it? The Oscars have changed their voting style this year. Instead of year's past when five films were nominated for Best Picture, or the past two years when ten films got nominated, this year, there can be anywhere from five to ten films nominated. I personally like this idea the most. It doesn't overwhelm the Academy to find ten films to nominated, or force them to narrow their list down to five. Instead, they can decide anywhere between the two, which makes the question of what films will be nominated almost as exciting as what film will win. The only issue for dark horse films is that the voting requires all the films to have a certain amount of #1 votes in order to be nominated.
But, there are still those dark horses, that will just be a surprise if they are nominated. I think there could be quite a few surprises tomorrow morning, one of the biggest being Bridesmaids for Best Picture. Could it actually happen? I think it's not highly likely, but I still believe there's a chance for it to happen. I also think Kristen Wiig could get a nomination for Best Actress. Again, unlikely, but still a chance for it to happen. However, the biggest surprise would be Andy Serkis being nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Rise of the Planet of the Apes. This would not only be a surprise, but would be a cornerstone moment for the Academy. This would be the first time the Oscars have honored a performance centered around CGI. I think it's a very real possibility, but the Supporting Acting category is so strong he may be overlooked. And what about Ryan Gosling/Jessica Chastain? Both had terrific years, Gosling showing his skills in films like Drive, The Ides of March, and Crazy, Stupid, Love, and Chastain in films like Take Shelter, The Tree of Life, and The Help. I think Chastain is much more likely to get a nomination, but Gosling also deserves a nominee for his terrific year.
So, without rambling on anymore, here are my nomination predictions in each category, and two alternates. I am currently predicting seven films to be nominated for Best Picture; I will post my alternates in case there are 8, 9 or 10 nominations. Each category is ranked by the likelihood I believe that film/role will be nominated.
Best Picture
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. The Help
4. The Descendants
5. Moneyball
6. Midnight in Paris
7. War Horse
If 8. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
If 9. The Tree of Life
If 10. Bridesmaids
Alt. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Best Director
1. Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
2. Martin Scorsese - Hugo
3. Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
4. Alexander Payne - The Descendants
5. Terrence Malik - The Tree of Life
Alt. Steven Spielberg - War Horse
Best Actor
1. Jean Dujardin - The Artist
2. George Clooney - The Descendants
3. Brad Pitt - Moneyball
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
5. Michael Fassbender - Shame
Alt. Gary Oldman - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Best Actress
1. Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
2. Viola Davis - The Help
3. Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn
4. Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
5. Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin
Alt. Kristen Wiig - Bridesmaids
Best Supporting Actor
1. Christopher Plummer - Beginners
2. Kenneth Branagh - My Week With Marilyn
3. Albert Brooks - Drive
4. Jonah Hill - Moneyball
5. Ryan Gosling - The Ides of March
Alt. Nick Nolte - Warrior
Best Supporting Actress
1. Octavia Spencer - The Help
2. Jessica Chastain - The Help
3. Berenice Bejo - The Artist
4. Carey Mulligan - Shame
5. Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Alt. Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
Best Original Screenplay
1. Midnight in Paris
2. The Artist
3. Beginners
4. 50/50
5. Bridesmaids
Alt. Young Adult
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Descendants
2. Moneyball
3. Hugo
4. The Help
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alt. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Best Animated Feature
1. Rango
2. Puss in Boots
3. The Adventures of Tintin
4. Arthur Christmas
5. Kung Fu Panda 2
Alt. Cars 2
Best Documentary Film
1. Project Nim
2. Bill Cunningham: New York
3. Paradise Lost 3
4. If a Tree Falls
5. Buck
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Iran - A Separation
2. Poland - In Darkness
3. Belgium - Bullhead
4. Germany - Pina
5. Israel - Footnote
Best Art Direction
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
2. The Artist
3. Hugo
4. War Horse
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alt. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Best Cinematography
1. The Tree of Life
2. The Artist
3. Hugo
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Drive
Alt. War Horse
Best Costume Design
1. The Artist
2. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
3. Drive
4. War Horse
5. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Alt. Captain America
Best Film Editing
1. Hugo
2. The Artist
3. Drive
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Midnight in Paris
Alt. Shame
Best Makeup
1. Albert Nobbs
2. The Iron Lady
3. Hugo
Alt. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Best Original Score
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
4. War Horse
5. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Alt. Jane Eyre
Best Original Song
1. Star Spangled Man - Captain America
2. Life's a Happy Song - The Muppets
3. Hello Hello - Gnomeo & Juliet
4. Man or Muppet - The Muppets
5. The Living Proof - The Help
Alt. Lay Your Head Down - Albert Nobbs
Best Sound Editing
1. Hugo
2. Super 8
3. The Adventures of Tintin
4. Drive
5. War Horse
Alt. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Best Sound Mixing
1. Super 8
2. Hugo
3. Moneyball
4. The Adventures of Tintin
5. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Alt. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Best Visual Effects
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2. The Tree of Life
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
4. Hugo
5. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Alt. Captain America
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